réchauffement climatique
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réchauffement climatique

Le réchauffement climatique (ou réchauffement planétaireréchauffement global ou dérèglement climatique2,3) est le phénomène d'augmentation des températures moyennes océaniques et de l'air, induit par la quantité de chaleur piégée à la surface terrestre, mesurée depuis plusieurs décennies, de même que le taux de CO2. Ce terme désigne communément le réchauffement global observé depuis le début du  siècle.
En 1988, l'ONU crée le Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC) pour synthétiser les études scientifiques sur le climat. Dans son quatrième rapport, auquel ont participé plus de 2 500 scientifiques de 130 pays4, le GIEC affirme que le réchauffement climatique depuis 1950 est très probablementc 1 dû à l'augmentation des gaz à effet de serre d'origine anthropique. Les conclusions du GIEC ont été approuvées par plus de quarante sociétés scientifiques et académies des sciences, y compris l'ensemble des académies nationales des sciences des grands pays industrialisés5.
Fin 2012, des climatologues6 ont compilé et comparé des simulations issues de vingt modèles et des satellites7, concluant que les changements de température de la troposphère et de la stratosphère sont bien réels et qu'ils sont clairement liés aux activités humaines8.
Les dernières projections du GIEC sont que la température de surface du globe pourrait croître de 1,1 à 6,4  supplémentaires au cours du  siècle. Les différences entre projections viennent des sensibilités différentes des modèles pour les concentrations de gaz à effet de serre et des différents estimations pour les émissions futures. La plupart des études ont 2100 comme horizon, mais le réchauffement devrait se poursuivre au-delà car même si les émissions s'arrêtent, les océans ont déjà stocké beaucoup de calories, des puits de carbone sont à restaurer, et la durée de vie du dioxyde de carbone et des autres gaz à effet de serre dans l'atmosphère est longue.
L’OMM a estimé que 2017 détient moins de records que 2016, mais sera probablement parmi les 3 années les plus chaudes jamais enregistrées (surtout dans le nord de la zone circumpolaire arctique et en Russie), et sera sans doute du record de chaleur pour une année sans effet El Niño9. Pour la première fois - et dans 3 études différentes - des climatologues rapportent que la survenue de plusieurs des événements météorologiques récents auraient été simplement impossibles sans l'influence des émissions anthropiques10,11,12,13.
Des incertitudes subsistent sur l'ampleur et la géographie du réchauffement futur, du fait de la précision des modélisations, de l'imprévisibilité du volcanisme, mais aussi des comportements étatiques et individuels (présents et futurs). Les enjeux socioéconomiques, politiques, sanitaires, environnementaux, voire moraux, étant majeurs, ils suscitent des débats nombreux, à l'échelle internationale, ainsi que des controverses. Néanmoins depuis 2000 un consensus émerge sur le fait que l'impact économique, sociologique, environnemental voire géopolitique du réchauffement est globalement négatif à moyen et long terme14 et sur le besoin d'une action concertée, locale et globale.

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